Karnataka: Can BJP regain its lost citadel?

Ajith Vijay Kumar

Amid the prevalent mood of gloom in the Congress camp, Karnataka appears to be a bright spot in their calculations for the Lok Sabha polls 2014.

The party appears confident of capitalizing on its spectacular victory in last year's assembly elections when the BJP was ousted from its lone citadel south of the Vindhyas.

However, the saffron party is back in the reckoning, if opinion polls are to be believed.

The saffron party has strengthened its ranks with the return of corruption tainted BS Yeddyurappa and BS Sriramulu.

It is no wonder that the issue of corruption, which is part of the BJP's national strategy to corner the Congress is not being pursued with the same level of diligence in Karnataka. And the Congress also has its own reasons to not try and pin BJP on the issue.

The JD(S) too wants to keep away from the issue as the party will also be faced with tough questions. Former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy summed up the sentiment the best. The former chief minister was quoted as saying that corruption is not an issue in Karnataka as the people are fed up with all political parties and would vote for the party that will solve their day-to-day problems.

However, given the popular sentiment against the menace, the BJP has taken a calculated risk by bringing Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu back in its fold – the intention being to recalibrate the caste equations in its favour post the assembly elections disaster.

Yeddyurappa holds considerable sway on the dominant Lingayat community constituting 15% of the population. His now defunct party had managed to corner 10% of the votes in the assembly elections to effectively ensure that BJP lost 40 seats by a narrow margin.

Sriramulu is also a critical cog in BJP's poll plans. He controls sizeable vote banks in the backward classes, especially the Valmiki community in north Karnataka.

The Bellary strongman was part of the formidable troika with the Reddy brothers who had played a pivotal role in 'Operation Kamal' during the early days of Yeddyurappa government when engineered defections were order of the day in the BJP's quest to keep the lotus afloat in Karnataka.

With Yeddyurapa's strength also in the North, the BJP may win big there.

However, the Congress holds the upper hand in the southern parts of the state, notwithstanding some competition from Janata Dal (Secular) of the Gowdas. The Vokkaligas are in stretch in the region, but it remains to be seen whether they will stick with the JD(S).

The other hotly contested region would be the coastal belt. Although the region has been a BJP stronghold for long, the Congress had managed major upsets there in the recent past.

The Aam Aadmi Party has complicated the equations in the largely urbane Greater Bangalore region. And leading from the front, with the broom in hand, is former Infosys CFO V Balakrishnan from Bangalore Central Lok Sabha constituency.

However, the most keenly watched constituency in the region is Bangalore South where Balakrishnan's old colleague and one of the original poster boys of the IT revolution Nandan Nilekani is engaged in a battle of prestige with five time MP and senior BJP leader Ananth Kumar.

Then there are the old warhorses, who are in the field to safeguard their turfs. Leading the pack from the Congress are Union Minister M Veerappa Moily and former chief minister Dharam Singh.

BJP's D V Sadananda Gowda, who is also a former CM, is trying his luck from Bangalore North. He had earlier represented Udupi-Chikkamagalur.

The BJP knows it has rough edges and the electorate may not be willing to forgive and forget so soon. It has led to a situation where the party is banking heavily on the 'Modi wave' to help it sail through the tough time.

Though Modi has attracted good crowds during his election rallies in the state, it remains to be seen whether it will translate into votes.

If history is any indicator of the future, the BJP has reasons to be enthused about its prospects as Karnataka has consistently voted differently for the state and central governments.

The BJP had won 19 of the 28 seats in 2009; the party hopes to match the figure if not improve upon it.

The over 4.6 crore voters in the state will decide that on April 17.